As a family doc and public health Epi nerd I have been following bird flu closely since June. BRAVO! This blog is a comprehensive, excellent sophisticated, (and sad) review of knowledge and public health policy avoidance in real time - al media res.
When you think people are still heated about the possibility of NIH gain of function research or the Wuhan lab starting the COVID pandemic - here we are with a domestic influenza A epidemic, daily edging closer to a human breakout - with none of the official agencies doing their job to protect us.
Should human transmission start we will look worse than the Chinese did in COVID.
With regard to dealing with H5N1, the national and state agricultural and public health authorities have been derelict in response to the point of malpractice. For instance, California with 1.7 million cows, is the largest dairy farming state in the country. In spite of the spreading H5N1 infections around the country, the was no, NONE AT ALL, surveillance or proactive interventions. At the beginning of August there were NO known H5N1 dairy herd infections in California. By mid November - within 10 weeks - there are 398 infected dairy herds, 63 infected commercial poultry flocks, 30 infected backyard flocks (with 12 million birds culled) and 27 infected dairy farm workers. This explosive epidemic and increasing risk was 100% preventable. This borders on criminal negligence. One would think that, forewarned as the virus continued to spread across the country, the California Departments of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) and Public Health (CDPH), rather than waiting for cases to pop up, would have assertively been surveilling the situation and quarantining farms. This was not to be so. Now, long after the proverbial barn door was left open, livestock and veterinary groups and official agencies are beginning to take basic public health steps. We are very close to viral capacity genetic breakout to infect humans. Very sad and scary.
Where I am in the UK we were put into a surveillance zone on Monday. New batch of Tamiflu ordered. Yet by Wednesday we already had one courier driver break the lock down on the farm by opening a closed gate and entering the farmyard. He was informed at this point he needed to have his wheels sprayed down with disinfectant...no drama, except in his case where's the sign not to open the Fam Gate.. (still in transit ). It's normal practice on a farm, that if the gate is closed there is a reason. Most people respect a closed gate. However not this guy, who then had a hissy fit drove through the swept up goose shit, he sped through the yard stopped at the gate, and dropped the new mail box which can take parcels. He and his bad temper left the farm with his wheels spinning, and nearly knocking me over in the process. He did not have his wheels sprayed, and was free with the goose shit in the treads of his tyres to visit other farms. Now the gate has been padlocked to stop a repeat.. However to prove a point the creep came back the next day to prove there was no signage...and his point is what ? We have a Bird flu H5N1 out break in the area and a lack of signage negates you from taking precautions from spreading it !
Greetings, and I offer thanks to the author(s) who bring this info to me.
In an attempt to be less alarmist, and more pragmatic on this topic, I look to the statistics from previous decades. Influenza has always been the reason for thousands of fatalities annually, and I do not yet see a trend toward a great increase. The point that I am making is this: Influenza has been with us for many, many years. There is no reason to panic. I personally have been very ill with influenza, more than once, and after a week or two of miserable coughing and lost sleep, I survived. There are very good sources of herbal antiviral extracts. Choose the ones that have an ingredient list and amounts that a lawyer would respect (that's when you can know its the real deal) Olive leaf, astragalus, and sambucus nigra (not the sweet syrup- the _strong_ alcohol extract)
No need to look at gov as the source of a remedy- we can learn and do all we need ourselves. Sure, a medical watchdog is a great idea, but fatalities will still happen. Trust in yourself, live long, and prosper. And f'get about this new crew-no worries.
You had regular flu. You did not have H5N1 highly pathogenic bird flu. And as I already covered, yes, several plant-based supplements have antiviral properties and you should keep some in stock since most of us probably won't get access to pharmaceuticals.
I realize Covid has trashed our immune systems. However, in 1918 the public diseases going around (measles, mumps, rubella, diphtheria, pertussis, chicken pox, etc) would have a significant hampering on that population’s immunity as well? So maybe, we will have a similar mortality rate, or better, this go around? I mean we were 10 years out, in 1918, on antibiotics as well. Just a thought.
Antibiotics don't work on viruses, and as the WHO says, we're entering the "post-antibiotic" age anyway. None of what you suggest offers a reason to take masks and clean air any less seriously, and that's not in line with the scope or purpose of this publication.
Not quite true. Building on the science directed toward treating the HIV virus, there are many antiviral treatments for COVID infections, analogs to antibiotics. They have had an important, but not perfect, effect in curtailing the impact of COVID-19 infections - see Paxlovid, remdesivir, and molnuprivar.
We cannot rely on antivirals alone. Many people can't access them, and that includes millions of Long Covid patients who need them to treat viral persistence. If I caught H5N1, I have no confidence at all that I could get antivirals in time.
OK, thanks for the info about "pathogenic". My point of view is that we must learn to live w/o the CDC/NIH as our overseer/salvation, because ultimately, those entities will not be there, or here, and maybe sooner than I fear. We must find alternatives from the current paradigm. The very plants on our planet may be our allies, if we may understand the details. This is a time to store files onto "thumb drives", and keep your machines in a steel enclosure to avoid EMP, such as the resultant situation from satellites de-orbiting when struck by shrapnel (see the movie "Gravity") Peace, and please study and save and join us in withstanding the current unpleasantness. Hopefullness forever.
As a family doc and public health Epi nerd I have been following bird flu closely since June. BRAVO! This blog is a comprehensive, excellent sophisticated, (and sad) review of knowledge and public health policy avoidance in real time - al media res.
When you think people are still heated about the possibility of NIH gain of function research or the Wuhan lab starting the COVID pandemic - here we are with a domestic influenza A epidemic, daily edging closer to a human breakout - with none of the official agencies doing their job to protect us.
Should human transmission start we will look worse than the Chinese did in COVID.
With regard to dealing with H5N1, the national and state agricultural and public health authorities have been derelict in response to the point of malpractice. For instance, California with 1.7 million cows, is the largest dairy farming state in the country. In spite of the spreading H5N1 infections around the country, the was no, NONE AT ALL, surveillance or proactive interventions. At the beginning of August there were NO known H5N1 dairy herd infections in California. By mid November - within 10 weeks - there are 398 infected dairy herds, 63 infected commercial poultry flocks, 30 infected backyard flocks (with 12 million birds culled) and 27 infected dairy farm workers. This explosive epidemic and increasing risk was 100% preventable. This borders on criminal negligence. One would think that, forewarned as the virus continued to spread across the country, the California Departments of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) and Public Health (CDPH), rather than waiting for cases to pop up, would have assertively been surveilling the situation and quarantining farms. This was not to be so. Now, long after the proverbial barn door was left open, livestock and veterinary groups and official agencies are beginning to take basic public health steps. We are very close to viral capacity genetic breakout to infect humans. Very sad and scary.
Where I am in the UK we were put into a surveillance zone on Monday. New batch of Tamiflu ordered. Yet by Wednesday we already had one courier driver break the lock down on the farm by opening a closed gate and entering the farmyard. He was informed at this point he needed to have his wheels sprayed down with disinfectant...no drama, except in his case where's the sign not to open the Fam Gate.. (still in transit ). It's normal practice on a farm, that if the gate is closed there is a reason. Most people respect a closed gate. However not this guy, who then had a hissy fit drove through the swept up goose shit, he sped through the yard stopped at the gate, and dropped the new mail box which can take parcels. He and his bad temper left the farm with his wheels spinning, and nearly knocking me over in the process. He did not have his wheels sprayed, and was free with the goose shit in the treads of his tyres to visit other farms. Now the gate has been padlocked to stop a repeat.. However to prove a point the creep came back the next day to prove there was no signage...and his point is what ? We have a Bird flu H5N1 out break in the area and a lack of signage negates you from taking precautions from spreading it !
Ah so you have these people in your country as well, lol.
Thank you, Jessica
Greetings, and I offer thanks to the author(s) who bring this info to me.
In an attempt to be less alarmist, and more pragmatic on this topic, I look to the statistics from previous decades. Influenza has always been the reason for thousands of fatalities annually, and I do not yet see a trend toward a great increase. The point that I am making is this: Influenza has been with us for many, many years. There is no reason to panic. I personally have been very ill with influenza, more than once, and after a week or two of miserable coughing and lost sleep, I survived. There are very good sources of herbal antiviral extracts. Choose the ones that have an ingredient list and amounts that a lawyer would respect (that's when you can know its the real deal) Olive leaf, astragalus, and sambucus nigra (not the sweet syrup- the _strong_ alcohol extract)
No need to look at gov as the source of a remedy- we can learn and do all we need ourselves. Sure, a medical watchdog is a great idea, but fatalities will still happen. Trust in yourself, live long, and prosper. And f'get about this new crew-no worries.
You had regular flu. You did not have H5N1 highly pathogenic bird flu. And as I already covered, yes, several plant-based supplements have antiviral properties and you should keep some in stock since most of us probably won't get access to pharmaceuticals.
I realize Covid has trashed our immune systems. However, in 1918 the public diseases going around (measles, mumps, rubella, diphtheria, pertussis, chicken pox, etc) would have a significant hampering on that population’s immunity as well? So maybe, we will have a similar mortality rate, or better, this go around? I mean we were 10 years out, in 1918, on antibiotics as well. Just a thought.
Antibiotics don't work on viruses, and as the WHO says, we're entering the "post-antibiotic" age anyway. None of what you suggest offers a reason to take masks and clean air any less seriously, and that's not in line with the scope or purpose of this publication.
Not quite true. Building on the science directed toward treating the HIV virus, there are many antiviral treatments for COVID infections, analogs to antibiotics. They have had an important, but not perfect, effect in curtailing the impact of COVID-19 infections - see Paxlovid, remdesivir, and molnuprivar.
We cannot rely on antivirals alone. Many people can't access them, and that includes millions of Long Covid patients who need them to treat viral persistence. If I caught H5N1, I have no confidence at all that I could get antivirals in time.
If Trump destroys the economy, which is looking more likely, fewer people will be able to afford the antivirals anyway.
OK, thanks for the info about "pathogenic". My point of view is that we must learn to live w/o the CDC/NIH as our overseer/salvation, because ultimately, those entities will not be there, or here, and maybe sooner than I fear. We must find alternatives from the current paradigm. The very plants on our planet may be our allies, if we may understand the details. This is a time to store files onto "thumb drives", and keep your machines in a steel enclosure to avoid EMP, such as the resultant situation from satellites de-orbiting when struck by shrapnel (see the movie "Gravity") Peace, and please study and save and join us in withstanding the current unpleasantness. Hopefullness forever.